In the last couple of days I wrote about the reason close-in availability exists and what I did to quantify the data in order to bring it to life. Today I will conclude the series by sharing with your the patterns that I found. I will warn you, today’s post is long and oozing with nerdiness.
I spoke about this topic at PointsU over the weekend and many people found the information helpful and I hope you find the same. As a caveat, the information I provide is my own interpretation of the data so take my rules of thumb with a grain of salt. I would invite you to look at the data to see if you can find your own patterns and if you so wish, expand on the findings.
As I mentioned in my previous posts, I used the following routes to conduct my search:
- Vancouver to Taipei on Eva Airlines (YVR-TPE on BR)
- Montreal to Zurich on Swiss Airlines (YUL-ZRH on LX)
- Calgary to Narita on Air Canada (YYC-NRT on AC)
- Montreal to Istanbul on Turkish Airlines (YUL-IST on TK)
- Toronto to Warsaw on LOT (YYZ-WAW on LO)
- Montreal to Beijing on Air China (YUL-PEK on CA)
As far as colors go, I will include the legend in each one of the graphical representations because they change slightly if there is Premium Economy award availability.
[highlight color=”#eeee22″ rounded=”no” class=”” id=””]In all cases, the vertical axis is the date the search occurred and the horizontal axis is the date of travel. Please keep in mind that when I conducted the search, it was done for 2 passengers. Your milage may vary depending on the number of passengers in your party.[/highlight]
Also keep in mind that I will be using the shorthand form of Business Class (J), Premium Economy (W) and Economy (Y) throughout this post but I will get you used to that nomenclature by being very prescriptive in the first route we review.
Vancouver to Taipei on Eva Airlines (YVR-TPE on BR)
I searched for this flight because it was the route that my parents preferred to fly. As I mentioned in my previous post, I started with this search and I decided to expand the search to other routes later, which is why the dates are different.
Legend
Green = J and Y Availability
Blue = J Availability
Yellow = Y Availability
Red = No Availability
Black = Does Not Fly
Analysis
For the YVR-TPE route with EVA Air (BR), we can see a pattern starting to form after August 27th, 2016 (horizontal axis). If you follow it down and to the right, you can start to see a step pattern forming. Here we see that both Business (J) and Economy (Y) availability open up approximately 2 weeks before the date of travel.
If we move further along to September 1st the horizontal axis (Date of Travel) and follow it down, you can start to see blue squares show up indicating J only availability. What’s interesting here is that if you look at the next day of search (one square down), you can see in all cases, the blue box turns green, meaning that the airline releases Business Class (J) first and the following day opens up Economy Class (Y) availability.
When we see breaks in the pattern, like the yellow within the sea of green, I assume it is because someone has taken the Business Class (J) availability, leaving only Economy available on that day. We can see later on, Business Class (J) becomes available again which I presume means that the person that took the initial availability changed their mind after a week and booked on another date, opening up both Business (J) and Economy (Y) availability.
Rule of Thumb
For EVA (BR) flights, the pattern seems to be consistent in that availability opens up approximately 2 weeks before the date of travel in both Business (J) and Economy (Y).
Montreal to Zurich on Swiss (YUL-ZRH on LX)
This is a route that I have not flown but I have had plenty of friends that have, and by all accounts, it’s amazing. There is something about Swiss’ IATA code (LX) that I absolutely love. It may be the best IATA code out there in my opinion. For me when you sound it out, it sounds like “lux” or “luxury”, which a nice psychological advantage to have as an airline. I searched for this route because Swiss is an amazing airline that does not charge Fuel Surcharge (YQ) and their hub in Zurich is an excellent option to get anywhere in Europe (as well as other places).
LEGEND
Green = J and Y Availability
Blue = J Availability
Yellow = Y Availability
Red = No Availability
Black = Does Not Fly
Analysis
For Swiss’ close-in availability, right off the bat, we can see there is lots and lots and lots of availability. When you see a sea of green, blue and yellow, you know it is a good route for availability. In terms of patterns, we start to see a stepped pattern much like we did for BR but the pattern forms further out.
Sorry … I know the vertical axis dates are hard to read but here’s what you should see. On August 15th (date of search) we see availability open up in J on September 4th, approximately 20 days before the date of travel. You can see the distinct step pattern forming which in my eyes is absolute proof of Swiss’ strategic release of award availability.
As with all availability, there are some weird things that happen like little to no availability on September 10th and 11th then availability opening up all of a sudden.
Even with some funkiness with the chart, there are very distinct patterns in this chart that tells me that Swiss is very predictable.
Rule of Thumb
Swiss opens up full availability approximately 20 days from the date of travel. There are blocks of times when only J is available and blocks where only Y is available but 20 days from the date of travel, you should be able to book in either J or Y. Look for J to be released with Y following the next day.
Calgary to Narita on Air Canada (YYC-NRT on AC)
Normally, I avoid Air Canada like the plague because of Fuel Surcharge (YQ) but in this particular instance we are not worried about fuel surcharge because we are flying into Japan which has outlawed the issuance of fuel surcharge. This route also features Air Canada’s 787 which has surprisingly good reviews on international flights like these.
Legend
Green = J, W and Y Availability
Purple = J and W Availability
Blue = J Availability
Orange = W Availability
Brown = W and Y Availability
Yellow = Y Availability
Red = No Availability
Black = Does Not Fly
Analysis
Air Canada does not look to release seats close-in, rather, they seem to have availability in blocks. As you can see, the pattern looks different than that of both BR and LX in that there are no steps but you can clearly see blocks.
What’s interesting to me in this chart is the sudden change from having Business Class (J) seats available prior to August 28th to having nothing available after that date. I do not know for certain but it appears to me that this is likely due to seasonality. Perhaps August 28th summer travel cut off, which would make sense as many children are back at school.
You can see after August 28th, only Premium Economy (W) and Economy (Y) are available. Not a sniff of Business Class (J), which is a shame.
Rule of Thumb
Air Canada does not seem to release seats close in but rather sets availability in blocks depending on season. If you do not see availability on your date of travel, move on to another date. It is unlikely that anything will open up closer to your date of travel.
Montreal to Istanbul on Turkish (YUL-IST on TK)
I recently flew this route on Turkish Airlines and it was amazing! The food and service are top notch and the hard product (seat, plane, etc) are not half bad either. Since then I have recommended that people fly this route … not only because of my experience but because Istanbul serves as the world’s hub. It is geographically located smack dab in between Asia and Europe and serves as an excellent location to be based from. There are 386 direct flights from Istanbul. Compare that to London Heathrow’s 60 or New York’s JFK’s 30 routes and you can start to see why you might want to fly to Istanbul. These numbers are based on Star Alliance direct routes in case you were wondering.
I also find Istanbul to be a great city to visit but if you have fears about terrorism, you can just connect in the airport (very, very, very safe) and visit the CIP Lounge (hint: it’s bonkers amazing!)
LEGEND
Green = J and Y Availability
Blue = J Availability
Yellow = Y Availability
Red = No Availability
Black = Does Not Fly
Analysis
Similar to Air Canada, Turkish does not seem to release seats close in … well maybe very, very close in but for the most part, what you see is what you get. If you follow the horizontal dates (date of travel) down, you can see that in most cases availability stays the same. There are some instances like on September 11th that they start out with Y availability and open up to J 7 days before the date of travel, but for the most part, availability seems to stay consistent. This was also my experience when I booked my award travel on this route.
Rule of Thumb
With this route on TK, you would be best served to look for availability on your dates of travel and if you do not find it, move on to another date. 9 times out of 10 you will find availability does not change.
Vancouver to Auckland on Air New Zealand (YVR-AKL on NZ)
Getting to Oceana on an award flight is notoriously hard to do and this route is no exception. In fact, it is depressingly bad. The only positive thing here is that the analysis is simple.
LEGEND
Green = J and Y Availability
Blue = J Availability
Yellow = Y Availability
Red = No Availability
Black = Does Not Fly
Analysis
I didn’t lie to you did I? As you can see, it’s horrible. There is almost no availability, nevermind close-in availability. Here we see that there are no premium class seats available at any time in the month and spotty Y availability. It also looks that if the seat is taken, it does not become available again, which coincides with the fact that Air New Zealand does not open up close-in.
Rule of Thumb
If you want to fly YVR-AKL on NZ, book far in advance. If you happen to find availability on your preferred date of travel, jump on it. It is unlikely that it will remain for long and if it is taken, it will not open up unless someone gives up their award seat (unlikely).
Toronto to Warsaw on LOT (YYZ-WAW on LO)
I chose this route to examine because LOT is a low YQ carrier. While they do charge fuel surcharge (YQ), the amount is so low that it almost doesn’t count as a carrier that charges YQ. Warsaw also serves as a fairly major hub for Europe with a smattering of long international flights as well (Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, Tel Aviv, etc).
LEGEND
Green = J and Y Availability
Blue = J Availability
Yellow = Y Availability
Red = No Availability
Black = Does Not Fly
Analysis
Similar to the availability of NZ above, LOT does not have close-in availability. LOT also does not seem to have any J seats available at all so if you intend on flying this route on an award, be prepared to sit in economy.
Rule of Thumb
If you insist on flying this route, book it as soon as you see availability because like NZ, once the availability is taken by someone else on award, LOT will not replace it with more inventory.
Montreal to Beijing on Air China (YUL-PEK on CA)
Air China is an interesting partner with Aeroplan. While I do not know the genesis of the issues, Aeroplan does not seem to have access to any CA award availability. This changed for about a 1 week time period about a month and a half ago but has now gone dormant again so you cannot find any award availability.
Legend
You don’t need one.
Analysis
Cloudy with a 100% chance of disappointment.
There is no availability. Not even in Y.
Rule of Thumb
Until the issues between Aeroplan and China Airlines gets sorted out, don’t expect to find any availability. Find another way to get to China. There are many.
You’ve Made It This Far
As you can well imagine based on the length of this post, this took a big chunk of my time to complete so I hope it helps you in your award search.
If you would like to do the analysis yourself, I have included the raw Excel data for both the actual award availability as well as graphical representation.
And yes. I know. I should have used a formula. Next time.
Close-In Availability Graphical Representation
Analyze This
If you happen to find any patterns I missed, feel free to let me know in the comments below. Help your fellow travel hackers with your knowledge if you have it. This community doesn’t move forward with people hoarding information.
Thanks for this — a really interesting read. A small typo in Part 3 here, just being nit-picky 🙂 — YUL to PEK would be Air China, not China Airlines.
I have taken several of the flights you researched, in business class, on Aeroplan tickets (YVR-TPE, YUL-ZRH, YUL-IST, and even YVR-AKL a few times, back when there were seats). It really is too bad about some of the availability declining or disappearing. Air New Zealand seats across the Pacific are almost non-existent on Aeroplan, and Air China is quite rare as well (from YVR also, not just YUL). I do see the odd seat show up on Aeroplan (saw one seat SFO-AKL in Air NZ business class for early Dec.2016) a couple of weeks ago — whether that was phantom availability, I’m not sure — but definitely no rhyme or reason to Air NZ availability.
Thanks Dory. I’ll make the correction.
The lack of availability is certainly a concern on some routes and it definitely frustrates folks that haven’t been in the game for as long as we have. My takeaway from this project is having a good idea of what routes open up availability and which don’t. Hopefully knowing that will make this less frustrating for folks new to the game